Rate-Shock Simulator
How big does the Charleston Tri-County refi pool get if rates drop?
For each scenario, we recompute every outstanding mortgage's rate gap against today's 30-yr fixed 6.45% and count those that would clear the 50 bps refi threshold. Click any scenario row to see the actual pre-warm watchlist — the properties that would become refi-eligible at that rate. Export the list, send a "watching rates for you" letter today, so your call lands the instant rates actually move.
Refi pool growth · by rate scenario
today 6.45% PMMS · 7 scenarios
── candidates ▮ total monthly savings
Scenario detail
click any row to drill into the pre-warm watchlist for that scenario
| Scenario | PMMS rate | Candidates | Δ vs today | Avg gap | Total mo. savings | Pool principal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | 6.45% | 16 | — | 70 bps | $7.2k | $15.56M | |
| −25 bps | 6.20% | 59 | +43 | 71 bps | $22.2k | $46.43M | View list → |
| −50 bps | 5.95% | 75 | +59 | 90 bps | $32.5k | $53.11M | View list → |
| −75 bps | 5.70% | 89 | +73 | 107 bps | $44.9k | $62.48M | View list → |
| −100 bps | 5.45% | 93 | +77 | 129 bps | $56.5k | $66.65M | View list → |
| −125 bps | 5.20% | 93 | +77 | 154 bps | $66.9k | $66.65M | View list → |
| −150 bps | 4.95% | 97 | +81 | 174 bps | $77.7k | $68.59M | View list → |
📋 Pre-warm watchlist · −50 bps scenario
75 properties would become refi-eligible at 5.95% PMMS · ~$32.5k/mo total potential savings
How to use →These borrowers don't qualify yet at today's 6.45% PMMS, but they will the moment rates land at 5.95%. Send a "I'm watching rates for you" letter today — when the move happens, your call lands warm, not cold.
| Property | Borrower | Lender | Original loan | Original rate | Gap | Savings/mo | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2262 Pinehurst Ave Isle of Palms · Isle of Palms | David Smith | South State Bank | $1.5M | 7.62% | 167 bps | $1,689 | Oct 2023 |
2145 Plantation St Sullivan's Island · Sullivan's Island | Jessica Miller | Guaranteed Rate | $2.1M | 7.06% | 111 bps | $1,540 | May 2024 |
1949 Plantation Ct Sullivan's Island · Sullivan's Island | Jessica Jones | Movement Mortgage | $2.1M | 6.96% | 101 bps | $1,420 | Jan 2025 |
100 Palmetto St Isle of Palms · Isle of Palms | Michael Jones | NewRez | $1.5M | 7.07% | 112 bps | $1,087 | Aug 2023 |
3656 Egret Dr Folly Beach · Folly Beach | Mary Garcia | CrossCountry Mortgage | $925k | 7.62% | 167 bps | $1,028 | Oct 2023 |
174 Heron Ln Kiawah Island · Kiawah Island | Sarah Williams | CrossCountry Mortgage | $1.7M | 6.85% | 90 bps | $1,009 | Jul 2024 |
4014 Saltgrass Ct Kiawah Island · Kiawah Island | John Johnson | Movement Mortgage | $1.6M | 6.81% | 86 bps | $895 | Nov 2024 |
898 Magnolia Blvd Kiawah Island · Kiawah Island | John Garcia | Wells Fargo | $1.5M | 6.82% | 87 bps | $859 | Mar 2024 |
1553 Spanish Moss Ave Isle of Palms · Isle of Palms | David Williams | CrossCountry Mortgage | $1.1M | 7.07% | 112 bps | $827 | Aug 2023 |
2375 Plantation Pl Sullivan's Island · Sullivan's Island | Mary Williams | Movement Mortgage | $1.6M | 6.73% | 78 bps | $811 | Apr 2025 |
319 Pelican Ct Sullivan's Island · Sullivan's Island | Michael Davis | Movement Mortgage | $1.4M | 6.81% | 86 bps | $802 | Nov 2022 |
2484 Marsh View Ln Kiawah Island · Kiawah Island | Sarah Brown | Guaranteed Rate | $1.4M | 6.81% | 86 bps | $762 | Nov 2022 |
2663 Saltgrass Way Sullivan's Island · Sullivan's Island | Michael Brown | United Wholesale Mortgage | $1.5M | 6.73% | 78 bps | $740 | Apr 2025 |
664 Camellia Blvd James Island · James Island | Jessica Davis | NewRez | $604k | 7.62% | 167 bps | $671 | Oct 2023 |
4283 Tidewater Way Isle of Palms · Isle of Palms | Mary Garcia | Fairway Independent Mortgage | $1.2M | 6.82% | 87 bps | $669 | Mar 2024 |
2737 Coleman Ln Kiawah Island · Kiawah Island | Mary Miller | NewRez | $1.3M | 6.73% | 78 bps | $667 | Apr 2025 |
2925 Spanish Moss Ct Downtown Charleston · Downtown Charleston | Michael Davis | NewRez | $849k | 7.07% | 112 bps | $625 | Aug 2023 |
4978 Cypress Way Downtown Charleston · Downtown Charleston | John Williams | Fairway Independent Mortgage | $886k | 6.96% | 101 bps | $587 | Jan 2025 |
4232 Tidewater Blvd Ridgeville · Ridgeville | Sarah Johnson | Lennar Mortgage | $767k | 7.10% | 115 bps | $581 | Apr 2024 |
3875 Schooner Ln James Island · James Island | Michael Brown | Wells Fargo | $767k | 7.07% | 112 bps | $565 | Aug 2023 |
871 Captain Ct Folly Beach · Folly Beach | Sarah Johnson | CrossCountry Mortgage | $944k | 6.85% | 90 bps | $556 | Jul 2024 |
1766 Sea Island Pl Downtown Charleston · Downtown Charleston | Jessica Jones | Fairway Independent Mortgage | $880k | 6.90% | 95 bps | $548 | Oct 2022 |
1482 Cypress Ln Johns Island · Johns Island | Robert Smith | Movement Mortgage | $767k | 6.96% | 101 bps | $508 | Jan 2025 |
4319 Plantation Blvd Downtown Charleston · Downtown Charleston | Mary Miller | Atlantic Bay Mortgage Group | $931k | 6.78% | 83 bps | $505 | Feb 2024 |
678 Live Oak Dr Folly Beach · Folly Beach | Robert Johnson | Movement Mortgage | $770k | 6.92% | 97 bps | $490 | Jun 2024 |
4933 Saltgrass Pl Downtown Charleston · Downtown Charleston | John Jones | Movement Mortgage | $840k | 6.81% | 86 bps | $473 | Nov 2022 |
3340 Pinehurst St Ridgeville · Ridgeville | Michael Smith | CrossCountry Mortgage | $767k | 6.85% | 90 bps | $452 | Dec 2024 |
3112 Channel Ln Folly Beach · Folly Beach | David Williams | Wells Fargo | $766k | 6.85% | 90 bps | $451 | Jul 2024 |
4799 Magnolia Dr Downtown Charleston · Downtown Charleston | Michael Davis | South State Bank | $767k | 6.84% | 89 bps | $447 | Jul 2023 |
4104 Channel Way Folly Beach · Folly Beach | Robert Garcia | Movement Mortgage | $696k | 6.92% | 97 bps | $443 | Jun 2024 |
918 Saltgrass Dr Folly Beach · Folly Beach | Mary Garcia | Rocket Mortgage | $755k | 6.84% | 89 bps | $440 | Feb 2025 |
1733 Camellia Blvd Hanahan · Hanahan | Robert Smith | NewRez | $767k | 6.82% | 87 bps | $437 | Dec 2023 |
1524 Riverside Blvd Isle of Palms · Isle of Palms | Jennifer Williams | Guild Mortgage | $904k | 6.69% | 74 bps | $436 | Jan 2024 |
1209 Plantation Pl Mt Pleasant · Mt Pleasant | Mary Smith | Fairway Independent Mortgage | $675k | 6.90% | 95 bps | $420 | Oct 2022 |
1860 Pinehurst Pl James Island · James Island | John Miller | Guild Mortgage | $767k | 6.73% | 78 bps | $391 | Apr 2025 |
1883 Magnolia Pl Johns Island · Johns Island | Robert Miller | Guaranteed Rate | $531k | 7.06% | 111 bps | $388 | May 2024 |
1438 Beachwalk St Folly Beach · Folly Beach | Mary Williams | South State Bank | $767k | 6.69% | 74 bps | $370 | Jan 2024 |
2863 Plantation Way West Ashley · West Ashley | John Miller | Fairway Independent Mortgage | $503k | 7.06% | 111 bps | $367 | May 2024 |
1431 Live Oak Ln Downtown Charleston · Downtown Charleston | Robert Johnson | Movement Mortgage | $944k | 6.54% | 59 bps | $362 | Mar 2023 |
2198 Captain Ct Folly Beach · Folly Beach | Sarah Miller | Atlantic Bay Mortgage Group | $524k | 6.81% | 86 bps | $295 | Nov 2022 |
4047 Spanish Moss St Johns Island · Johns Island | Michael Smith | Mortgage Network | $491k | 6.85% | 90 bps | $289 | Dec 2024 |
4480 Beachwalk Dr Johns Island · Johns Island | Jennifer Brown | Rocket Mortgage | $496k | 6.84% | 89 bps | $289 | Feb 2025 |
1496 Sea Island Blvd Hanahan · Hanahan | Jessica Smith | Movement Mortgage | $428k | 6.92% | 97 bps | $272 | Jun 2024 |
4380 Maple Dr James Island · James Island | Michael Brown | Fairway Independent Mortgage | $544k | 6.71% | 76 bps | $270 | Jun 2023 |
2729 Beachwalk Way James Island · James Island | Jessica Davis | Rocket Mortgage | $531k | 6.69% | 74 bps | $256 | Jan 2024 |
2495 Coleman Pl Moncks Corner · Moncks Corner | David Brown | Movement Mortgage | $362k | 6.96% | 101 bps | $240 | Jan 2025 |
2372 Magnolia Ave West Ashley · West Ashley | Jennifer Jones | Bank of America | $433k | 6.73% | 78 bps | $221 | Apr 2025 |
3585 Tidewater Dr Hanahan · Hanahan | Robert Williams | South State Bank | $466k | 6.65% | 70 bps | $213 | Mar 2025 |
1292 Pelican Pl Johns Island · Johns Island | David Johnson | Guaranteed Rate | $359k | 6.85% | 90 bps | $212 | Dec 2024 |
2178 Azalea Dr Goose Creek · Goose Creek | Jessica Johnson | Movement Mortgage | $355k | 6.84% | 89 bps | $207 | Jul 2023 |
865 Heron Pl Ridgeville · Ridgeville | Jennifer Smith | Guild Mortgage | $322k | 6.90% | 95 bps | $200 | Oct 2022 |
388 Captain St Goose Creek · Goose Creek | David Smith | Fairway Independent Mortgage | $333k | 6.85% | 90 bps | $196 | Jul 2024 |
4924 Saltgrass St Summerville · Summerville | Mary Garcia | Movement Mortgage | $422k | 6.65% | 70 bps | $193 | Mar 2025 |
1385 Sea Island St North Charleston · North Charleston | Robert Brown | NewRez | $295k | 6.92% | 97 bps | $188 | Jun 2024 |
3423 Harbor Ct North Charleston · North Charleston | John Smith | CrossCountry Mortgage | $314k | 6.84% | 89 bps | $183 | Feb 2025 |
2478 Coleman Ave Hanahan · Hanahan | Jessica Johnson | CrossCountry Mortgage | $368k | 6.71% | 76 bps | $183 | Jun 2023 |
189 Riverside Way Summerville · Summerville | Robert Miller | NewRez | $312k | 6.84% | 89 bps | $182 | Jul 2023 |
2133 Spanish Moss Blvd North Charleston · North Charleston | David Brown | Wells Fargo | $316k | 6.82% | 87 bps | $180 | Dec 2023 |
4960 Pelican St Moncks Corner · Moncks Corner | Mary Jones | Lennar Mortgage | $319k | 6.78% | 83 bps | $173 | Feb 2024 |
1004 Oakcrest Dr North Charleston · North Charleston | Michael Miller | Guild Mortgage | $337k | 6.71% | 76 bps | $167 | Jun 2023 |
904 Dogwood Dr Moncks Corner · Moncks Corner | Jessica Jones | Fairway Independent Mortgage | $292k | 6.82% | 87 bps | $166 | Mar 2024 |
1067 Beachwalk Ave Hanahan · Hanahan | Mary Miller | Atlantic Bay Mortgage Group | $429k | 6.54% | 59 bps | $165 | Mar 2023 |
2525 Azalea Ct Moncks Corner · Moncks Corner | Sarah Johnson | Wells Fargo | $224k | 7.20% | 125 bps | $155 | Sep 2023 |
1869 Egret Dr Summerville · Summerville | Michael Jones | Movement Mortgage | $318k | 6.65% | 70 bps | $145 | Mar 2025 |
2484 Marsh View Ln Kiawah Island · Kiawah Island | Mary Williams | Wells Fargo | $342k | 6.71% | 76 bps | $142 | Jun 2023 |
3264 Live Oak Way Moncks Corner · Moncks Corner | Sarah Johnson | Fairway Independent Mortgage | $266k | 6.65% | 70 bps | $121 | Mar 2025 |
4115 Marsh View Pl Johns Island · Johns Island | David Brown | Mortgage Network | $375k | 6.54% | 59 bps | $121 | Mar 2023 |
1125 Marsh View Way Ridgeville · Ridgeville | Jessica Jones | Bank of America | $229k | 6.69% | 74 bps | $111 | Jan 2024 |
777 Captain Ct Hanahan · Hanahan | Mary Brown | South State Bank | $311k | 6.50% | 55 bps | $111 | Aug 2024 |
1974 Sea Island Pl Ridgeville · Ridgeville | Mary Brown | Rocket Mortgage | $217k | 6.65% | 70 bps | $99 | Mar 2025 |
2550 Azalea Dr Goose Creek · Goose Creek | David Brown | South State Bank | $270k | 6.50% | 55 bps | $96 | Aug 2024 |
2262 Pinehurst Ave Isle of Palms · Isle of Palms | Mary Johnson | Truist | $164k | 6.82% | 87 bps | $78 | Jun 2025 |
3112 Channel Ln Folly Beach · Folly Beach | Mary Smith | Movement Mortgage | $125k | 6.65% | 70 bps | $48 | Mar 2025 |
1760 Schooner Pl North Charleston · North Charleston | Mary Brown | South State Bank | $78k | 6.78% | 83 bps | $35 | Feb 2024 |
1482 Cypress Ln Johns Island · Johns Island | David Johnson | South State Bank | $106k | 6.50% | 55 bps | $32 | Jan 2026 |
How to use this
When the FOMC cuts and PMMS drops 25-50 bps, your callable pool can grow 4-5×. Pre-warm the most likely scenarios: click a scenario, export the CSV, mail-merge a "watching rates for you" letter, and file the list. When PMMS lands at one of these scenarios, the new candidates flow into /refi automatically and the Slack alert router fires the digest — except now your warm-up letter is already in their mailbox.