How big does the Charleston Tri-County refi pool get if rates drop?
For each scenario, we recompute every outstanding mortgage's rate gap against today's 30-yr fixed 6.45% and count those that would clear the 50 bps refi threshold. Click any scenario row to see the actual pre-warm watchlist — the properties that would become refi-eligible at that rate. Export the list, send a "watching rates for you" letter today, so your call lands the instant rates actually move.
| Scenario | PMMS rate | Candidates | Δ vs today | Avg gap | Total mo. savings | Pool principal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | 6.45% | 16 | — | 70 bps | $7.2k | $15.56M | |
| −25 bps | 6.20% | 59 | +43 | 71 bps | $22.2k | $46.43M | View list → |
| −50 bps | 5.95% | 75 | +59 | 90 bps | $32.5k | $53.11M | View list → |
| −75 bps | 5.70% | 89 | +73 | 107 bps | $44.9k | $62.48M | View list → |
| −100 bps | 5.45% | 93 | +77 | 129 bps | $56.5k | $66.65M | View list → |
| −125 bps | 5.20% | 93 | +77 | 154 bps | $66.9k | $66.65M | View list → |
| −150 bps | 4.95% | 97 | +81 | 174 bps | $77.7k | $68.59M | View list → |
| Property | Borrower | Lender | Original loan | Original rate | Gap | Savings/mo | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2262 Pinehurst Ave Isle of Palms · Isle of Palms | David Smith | South State Bank | $1.5M | 7.62% | 117 bps | $1,196 | Oct 2023 |
2145 Plantation St Sullivan's Island · Sullivan's Island | Jessica Miller | Guaranteed Rate | $2.1M | 7.06% | 61 bps | $856 | May 2024 |
3656 Egret Dr Folly Beach · Folly Beach | Mary Garcia | CrossCountry Mortgage | $925k | 7.62% | 117 bps | $728 | Oct 2023 |
1949 Plantation Ct Sullivan's Island · Sullivan's Island | Jessica Jones | Movement Mortgage | $2.1M | 6.96% | 51 bps | $725 | Jan 2025 |
100 Palmetto St Isle of Palms · Isle of Palms | Michael Jones | NewRez | $1.5M | 7.07% | 62 bps | $609 | Aug 2023 |
664 Camellia Blvd James Island · James Island | Jessica Davis | NewRez | $604k | 7.62% | 117 bps | $475 | Oct 2023 |
1553 Spanish Moss Ave Isle of Palms · Isle of Palms | David Williams | CrossCountry Mortgage | $1.1M | 7.07% | 62 bps | $463 | Aug 2023 |
2925 Spanish Moss Ct Downtown Charleston · Downtown Charleston | Michael Davis | NewRez | $849k | 7.07% | 62 bps | $350 | Aug 2023 |
4232 Tidewater Blvd Ridgeville · Ridgeville | Sarah Johnson | Lennar Mortgage | $767k | 7.10% | 65 bps | $332 | Apr 2024 |
3875 Schooner Ln James Island · James Island | Michael Brown | Wells Fargo | $767k | 7.07% | 62 bps | $316 | Aug 2023 |
4978 Cypress Way Downtown Charleston · Downtown Charleston | John Williams | Fairway Independent Mortgage | $886k | 6.96% | 51 bps | $300 | Jan 2025 |
1482 Cypress Ln Johns Island · Johns Island | Robert Smith | Movement Mortgage | $767k | 6.96% | 51 bps | $260 | Jan 2025 |
1883 Magnolia Pl Johns Island · Johns Island | Robert Miller | Guaranteed Rate | $531k | 7.06% | 61 bps | $215 | May 2024 |
2863 Plantation Way West Ashley · West Ashley | John Miller | Fairway Independent Mortgage | $503k | 7.06% | 61 bps | $204 | May 2024 |
2495 Coleman Pl Moncks Corner · Moncks Corner | David Brown | Movement Mortgage | $362k | 6.96% | 51 bps | $122 | Jan 2025 |
2525 Azalea Ct Moncks Corner · Moncks Corner | Sarah Johnson | Wells Fargo | $224k | 7.20% | 75 bps | $94 | Sep 2023 |
When the FOMC cuts and PMMS drops 25-50 bps, your callable pool can grow 4-5×. Pre-warm the most likely scenarios: click a scenario, export the CSV, mail-merge a "watching rates for you" letter, and file the list. When PMMS lands at one of these scenarios, the new candidates flow into /refi automatically and the Slack alert router fires the digest — except now your warm-up letter is already in their mailbox.