Rate-Shock Simulator
How big does the Charleston Tri-County refi pool get if rates drop?
For each scenario, we recompute every outstanding mortgage's rate gap against today's 30-yr fixed 6.45% and count those that would clear the 50 bps refi threshold. Click any scenario row to see the actual pre-warm watchlist — the properties that would become refi-eligible at that rate. Export the list, send a "watching rates for you" letter today, so your call lands the instant rates actually move.
Refi pool growth · by rate scenario
today 6.45% PMMS · 7 scenarios
── candidates ▮ total monthly savings
Scenario detail
click any row to drill into the pre-warm watchlist for that scenario
| Scenario | PMMS rate | Candidates | Δ vs today | Avg gap | Total mo. savings | Pool principal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | 6.45% | 16 | — | 70 bps | $7.2k | $15.56M | |
| −25 bps | 6.20% | 59 | +43 | 71 bps | $22.2k | $46.43M | View list → |
| −50 bps | 5.95% | 75 | +59 | 90 bps | $32.5k | $53.11M | View list → |
| −75 bps | 5.70% | 89 | +73 | 107 bps | $44.9k | $62.48M | View list → |
| −100 bps | 5.45% | 93 | +77 | 129 bps | $56.5k | $66.65M | View list → |
| −125 bps | 5.20% | 93 | +77 | 154 bps | $66.9k | $66.65M | View list → |
| −150 bps | 4.95% | 97 | +81 | 174 bps | $77.7k | $68.59M | View list → |
📋 Pre-warm watchlist · −25 bps scenario
59 properties would become refi-eligible at 6.20% PMMS · ~$22.2k/mo total potential savings
How to use →These borrowers don't qualify yet at today's 6.45% PMMS, but they will the moment rates land at 6.20%. Send a "I'm watching rates for you" letter today — when the move happens, your call lands warm, not cold.
| Property | Borrower | Lender | Original loan | Original rate | Gap | Savings/mo | Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2262 Pinehurst Ave Isle of Palms · Isle of Palms | David Smith | South State Bank | $1.5M | 7.62% | 142 bps | $1,444 | Oct 2023 |
2145 Plantation St Sullivan's Island · Sullivan's Island | Jessica Miller | Guaranteed Rate | $2.1M | 7.06% | 86 bps | $1,200 | May 2024 |
1949 Plantation Ct Sullivan's Island · Sullivan's Island | Jessica Jones | Movement Mortgage | $2.1M | 6.96% | 76 bps | $1,074 | Jan 2025 |
3656 Egret Dr Folly Beach · Folly Beach | Mary Garcia | CrossCountry Mortgage | $925k | 7.62% | 142 bps | $879 | Oct 2023 |
100 Palmetto St Isle of Palms · Isle of Palms | Michael Jones | NewRez | $1.5M | 7.07% | 87 bps | $849 | Aug 2023 |
174 Heron Ln Kiawah Island · Kiawah Island | Sarah Williams | CrossCountry Mortgage | $1.7M | 6.85% | 65 bps | $733 | Jul 2024 |
1553 Spanish Moss Ave Isle of Palms · Isle of Palms | David Williams | CrossCountry Mortgage | $1.1M | 7.07% | 87 bps | $646 | Aug 2023 |
4014 Saltgrass Ct Kiawah Island · Kiawah Island | John Johnson | Movement Mortgage | $1.6M | 6.81% | 61 bps | $638 | Nov 2024 |
898 Magnolia Blvd Kiawah Island · Kiawah Island | John Garcia | Wells Fargo | $1.5M | 6.82% | 62 bps | $616 | Mar 2024 |
664 Camellia Blvd James Island · James Island | Jessica Davis | NewRez | $604k | 7.62% | 142 bps | $574 | Oct 2023 |
319 Pelican Ct Sullivan's Island · Sullivan's Island | Michael Davis | Movement Mortgage | $1.4M | 6.81% | 61 bps | $572 | Nov 2022 |
2375 Plantation Pl Sullivan's Island · Sullivan's Island | Mary Williams | Movement Mortgage | $1.6M | 6.73% | 53 bps | $554 | Apr 2025 |
2484 Marsh View Ln Kiawah Island · Kiawah Island | Sarah Brown | Guaranteed Rate | $1.4M | 6.81% | 61 bps | $544 | Nov 2022 |
2663 Saltgrass Way Sullivan's Island · Sullivan's Island | Michael Brown | United Wholesale Mortgage | $1.5M | 6.73% | 53 bps | $506 | Apr 2025 |
2925 Spanish Moss Ct Downtown Charleston · Downtown Charleston | Michael Davis | NewRez | $849k | 7.07% | 87 bps | $489 | Aug 2023 |
4283 Tidewater Way Isle of Palms · Isle of Palms | Mary Garcia | Fairway Independent Mortgage | $1.2M | 6.82% | 62 bps | $480 | Mar 2024 |
4232 Tidewater Blvd Ridgeville · Ridgeville | Sarah Johnson | Lennar Mortgage | $767k | 7.10% | 90 bps | $457 | Apr 2024 |
2737 Coleman Ln Kiawah Island · Kiawah Island | Mary Miller | NewRez | $1.3M | 6.73% | 53 bps | $456 | Apr 2025 |
4978 Cypress Way Downtown Charleston · Downtown Charleston | John Williams | Fairway Independent Mortgage | $886k | 6.96% | 76 bps | $444 | Jan 2025 |
3875 Schooner Ln James Island · James Island | Michael Brown | Wells Fargo | $767k | 7.07% | 87 bps | $441 | Aug 2023 |
1766 Sea Island Pl Downtown Charleston · Downtown Charleston | Jessica Jones | Fairway Independent Mortgage | $880k | 6.90% | 70 bps | $406 | Oct 2022 |
871 Captain Ct Folly Beach · Folly Beach | Sarah Johnson | CrossCountry Mortgage | $944k | 6.85% | 65 bps | $404 | Jul 2024 |
1482 Cypress Ln Johns Island · Johns Island | Robert Smith | Movement Mortgage | $767k | 6.96% | 76 bps | $385 | Jan 2025 |
678 Live Oak Dr Folly Beach · Folly Beach | Robert Johnson | Movement Mortgage | $770k | 6.92% | 72 bps | $366 | Jun 2024 |
4319 Plantation Blvd Downtown Charleston · Downtown Charleston | Mary Miller | Atlantic Bay Mortgage Group | $931k | 6.78% | 58 bps | $355 | Feb 2024 |
4933 Saltgrass Pl Downtown Charleston · Downtown Charleston | John Jones | Movement Mortgage | $840k | 6.81% | 61 bps | $337 | Nov 2022 |
4104 Channel Way Folly Beach · Folly Beach | Robert Garcia | Movement Mortgage | $696k | 6.92% | 72 bps | $330 | Jun 2024 |
3340 Pinehurst St Ridgeville · Ridgeville | Michael Smith | CrossCountry Mortgage | $767k | 6.85% | 65 bps | $328 | Dec 2024 |
3112 Channel Ln Folly Beach · Folly Beach | David Williams | Wells Fargo | $766k | 6.85% | 65 bps | $328 | Jul 2024 |
4799 Magnolia Dr Downtown Charleston · Downtown Charleston | Michael Davis | South State Bank | $767k | 6.84% | 64 bps | $323 | Jul 2023 |
918 Saltgrass Dr Folly Beach · Folly Beach | Mary Garcia | Rocket Mortgage | $755k | 6.84% | 64 bps | $318 | Feb 2025 |
1733 Camellia Blvd Hanahan · Hanahan | Robert Smith | NewRez | $767k | 6.82% | 62 bps | $313 | Dec 2023 |
1209 Plantation Pl Mt Pleasant · Mt Pleasant | Mary Smith | Fairway Independent Mortgage | $675k | 6.90% | 70 bps | $311 | Oct 2022 |
1883 Magnolia Pl Johns Island · Johns Island | Robert Miller | Guaranteed Rate | $531k | 7.06% | 86 bps | $302 | May 2024 |
2863 Plantation Way West Ashley · West Ashley | John Miller | Fairway Independent Mortgage | $503k | 7.06% | 86 bps | $286 | May 2024 |
1860 Pinehurst Pl James Island · James Island | John Miller | Guild Mortgage | $767k | 6.73% | 53 bps | $267 | Apr 2025 |
4047 Spanish Moss St Johns Island · Johns Island | Michael Smith | Mortgage Network | $491k | 6.85% | 65 bps | $210 | Dec 2024 |
2198 Captain Ct Folly Beach · Folly Beach | Sarah Miller | Atlantic Bay Mortgage Group | $524k | 6.81% | 61 bps | $210 | Nov 2022 |
4480 Beachwalk Dr Johns Island · Johns Island | Jennifer Brown | Rocket Mortgage | $496k | 6.84% | 64 bps | $209 | Feb 2025 |
1496 Sea Island Blvd Hanahan · Hanahan | Jessica Smith | Movement Mortgage | $428k | 6.92% | 72 bps | $203 | Jun 2024 |
2495 Coleman Pl Moncks Corner · Moncks Corner | David Brown | Movement Mortgage | $362k | 6.96% | 76 bps | $182 | Jan 2025 |
4380 Maple Dr James Island · James Island | Michael Brown | Fairway Independent Mortgage | $544k | 6.71% | 51 bps | $182 | Jun 2023 |
1292 Pelican Pl Johns Island · Johns Island | David Johnson | Guaranteed Rate | $359k | 6.85% | 65 bps | $154 | Dec 2024 |
2372 Magnolia Ave West Ashley · West Ashley | Jennifer Jones | Bank of America | $433k | 6.73% | 53 bps | $151 | Apr 2025 |
2178 Azalea Dr Goose Creek · Goose Creek | Jessica Johnson | Movement Mortgage | $355k | 6.84% | 64 bps | $150 | Jul 2023 |
865 Heron Pl Ridgeville · Ridgeville | Jennifer Smith | Guild Mortgage | $322k | 6.90% | 70 bps | $149 | Oct 2022 |
388 Captain St Goose Creek · Goose Creek | David Smith | Fairway Independent Mortgage | $333k | 6.85% | 65 bps | $142 | Jul 2024 |
1385 Sea Island St North Charleston · North Charleston | Robert Brown | NewRez | $295k | 6.92% | 72 bps | $140 | Jun 2024 |
3423 Harbor Ct North Charleston · North Charleston | John Smith | CrossCountry Mortgage | $314k | 6.84% | 64 bps | $132 | Feb 2025 |
189 Riverside Way Summerville · Summerville | Robert Miller | NewRez | $312k | 6.84% | 64 bps | $131 | Jul 2023 |
2133 Spanish Moss Blvd North Charleston · North Charleston | David Brown | Wells Fargo | $316k | 6.82% | 62 bps | $129 | Dec 2023 |
2525 Azalea Ct Moncks Corner · Moncks Corner | Sarah Johnson | Wells Fargo | $224k | 7.20% | 100 bps | $124 | Sep 2023 |
2478 Coleman Ave Hanahan · Hanahan | Jessica Johnson | CrossCountry Mortgage | $368k | 6.71% | 51 bps | $123 | Jun 2023 |
4960 Pelican St Moncks Corner · Moncks Corner | Mary Jones | Lennar Mortgage | $319k | 6.78% | 58 bps | $122 | Feb 2024 |
904 Dogwood Dr Moncks Corner · Moncks Corner | Jessica Jones | Fairway Independent Mortgage | $292k | 6.82% | 62 bps | $119 | Mar 2024 |
1004 Oakcrest Dr North Charleston · North Charleston | Michael Miller | Guild Mortgage | $337k | 6.71% | 51 bps | $113 | Jun 2023 |
2484 Marsh View Ln Kiawah Island · Kiawah Island | Mary Williams | Wells Fargo | $342k | 6.71% | 51 bps | $96 | Jun 2023 |
2262 Pinehurst Ave Isle of Palms · Isle of Palms | Mary Johnson | Truist | $164k | 6.82% | 62 bps | $56 | Jun 2025 |
1760 Schooner Pl North Charleston · North Charleston | Mary Brown | South State Bank | $78k | 6.78% | 58 bps | $25 | Feb 2024 |
How to use this
When the FOMC cuts and PMMS drops 25-50 bps, your callable pool can grow 4-5×. Pre-warm the most likely scenarios: click a scenario, export the CSV, mail-merge a "watching rates for you" letter, and file the list. When PMMS lands at one of these scenarios, the new candidates flow into /refi automatically and the Slack alert router fires the digest — except now your warm-up letter is already in their mailbox.